Evidence.
Original model scores. One fixed regional trend analysis. Each answers a different question.
Loading the fixed analysis…
The regional trend.
Download results| Index | Mean trend | Standard error | Lower limit | Upper limit |
|---|
Fixed model and interpretation
The PARTS-inspired calculation fits each cell’s temporal GLS trend, propagates the complete covariance between cells, and averages all 176 cells equally. It uses a fixed working model, rather than fitted correlation parameters.
This interval belongs to the fixed region. It is not an individual cell interval, a damage probability, a forecast, or an estimate for another map location. The reference cohort and available observations were selected retrospectively.
Uncertainty from choosing covariance parameters is not included. With no temporal nugget, differences between close acquisition dates can inflate the fitted residual scale.
Archived conditional simulation check
| Index | Coverage | Monte Carlo 95% limits | Repetitions |
|---|
These 500-run Gaussian null simulations were archived with the original primary model and were not rerun for this page. They describe conditional simulation coverage, not accuracy or guaranteed coverage in the real forest. Independent ecological accuracy remains unmeasured.
One cell. Its evidence.
Inspect a cell from the fixed 176-cell local frame. Its model scores and sensitivity records stay separate from the regional interval.
Choose a cell to inspect its evidence.
Model evidence
Relative anomaly ranks, not probabilities. The three model families and original candidate rule are unchanged.
Observation support
Usable cell dates and median valid dates per forest pixel describe different levels of support.
Trend and sensitivity
Source-choice and deleted-year runs reuse observations. Their votes are sensitivity checks, not independent probabilities; they are never averaged into confidence. Spatial sensitivity remains available in the downloaded record and research archive.
A traceable result.
The fixed protocol retains all three detector families and the original six local candidates. Download the results, exact assumptions and verification records.