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0.06845238095238095, "ensemble": 0.16633597883597884, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 19, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 4, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 4.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 0.7104, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 732.7004845091888 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.00597621334621401, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.008372982655132949, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, 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"2022": 5, "2023": 5, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 0.9584, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 803.0255288594504 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.0056611030459511255, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.0073229121905826755, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 2, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.4024470899470899, "source_score_max": 0.6603835978835979, "source_trend_min": 0.0032823162619024, "source_trend_max": 0.0065309139899909 } }, "CELL_R2750_C2900": { "id": "CELL_R2750_C2900", "latitude": 44.866810951473326, "longitude": -88.87141366869437, "scores": { "iforest": 0.32440476190476186, "mahalanobis": 0.32440476190476186, "pca": 0.41964285714285715, "ensemble": 0.35615079365079366, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 20, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 5, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 1.0, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 846.0053191322145 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.0067998705608297155, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.008723594960721462, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage 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"2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 0.9888, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 886.1433292645157 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.0060927483923806924, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.008512073368859466, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 0, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.0704365079365079, "source_score_max": 0.5572089947089947, "source_trend_min": 0.002498063724488, "source_trend_max": 0.0063104471191763 } }, "CELL_R2750_C2950": { "id": "CELL_R2750_C2950", "latitude": 44.866842044306026, "longitude": -88.8695158916783, "scores": { "iforest": 0.4910714285714286, "mahalanobis": 0.44940476190476186, "pca": 0.44940476190476186, "ensemble": 0.46329365079365076, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 20, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 5, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 1.0, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 885.5083285887265 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.007850696603378934, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.008423244499960847, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 0, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.2384259259259259, "source_score_max": 0.7734788359788359, "source_trend_min": 0.0028862408362329, "source_trend_max": 0.0067923385649919 } }, "CELL_R2750_C2975": { "id": "CELL_R2750_C2975", "latitude": 44.86685757890277, "longitude": -88.86856700201643, "scores": { "iforest": 0.30456349206349204, "mahalanobis": 0.31845238095238093, "pca": 0.41964285714285715, "ensemble": 0.34755291005291006, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 20, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 5, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 1.0, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 891.2070466507769 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.005269990997172548, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.007930541720406206, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 0, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.140542328042328, "source_score_max": 0.7119708994708994, "source_trend_min": 0.0015016291290521, "source_trend_max": 0.0060125361196696 } }, "CELL_R2775_C2850": { "id": "CELL_R2775_C2850", "latitude": 44.866105028179994, "longitude": -88.87328954877373, "scores": { "iforest": 0.8918650793650793, "mahalanobis": 0.9077380952380952, "pca": 0.5089285714285714, "ensemble": 0.769510582010582, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 19, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 4, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 0.7952, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 699.7142273814361 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.009352581060491964, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.009570841627147525, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, 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slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.0007702683125312693, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 1, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 1, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 4, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.857473544973545, "source_score_max": 0.953373015873016, "source_trend_min": -0.0024955389089882, "source_trend_max": -5.6463497458025806e-05 } }, "CELL_R2775_C2900": { "id": "CELL_R2775_C2900", "latitude": 44.866136151803346, "longitude": -88.87139179698534, "scores": { "iforest": 0.6061507936507937, "mahalanobis": 0.7291666666666666, "pca": 0.5565476190476191, "ensemble": 0.6306216931216931, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 20, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 5, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 1.0, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 787.4642849044012 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.0017370144746802207, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.004671521193523931, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 4, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.4751984126984127, "source_score_max": 0.7298280423280423, "source_trend_min": 0.0011369658168405, "source_trend_max": 0.0040272558107972 } }, "CELL_R2775_C2925": { "id": "CELL_R2775_C2925", "latitude": 44.86615170179574, "longitude": -88.8704429199362, "scores": { "iforest": 0.3581349206349207, "mahalanobis": 0.4970238095238095, "pca": 0.4791666666666667, "ensemble": 0.4447751322751323, "agreement": 0, "priority": false }, "support": { "n_dates": 20, "dates_per_year": { "2021": 5, "2022": 5, "2023": 5, "2024": 3, "2025": 2 }, "median_pixel_dates_per_year": { "2021": 5.0, "2022": 5.0, "2023": 5.0, "2024": 3.0, "2025": 2.0 }, "forest_fraction": 1.0, "common_valid_forest_fraction": 1.0, "huber_eligible_forest_fraction": 1.0, "spatial_supported": true, "reference_distance_m": 811.2490369793976 }, "trend": { "ndre": { "slope": 0.0031212797820363014, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" }, "ndvi": { "slope": 0.006146951366940254, "interpretation": "cell temporal GLS slope, not a damage probability or cell interval" } }, "sensitivity": { "assessed": true, "precomputed": true, "source_trend_metric": "median pixel NDRE Huber slope", "source_trend_units": "NDRE units per year", "source_scenarios": 27, "source_priority_votes": 0, "source_high_anomaly_votes": 0, "year_ml_votes_of_5": 0, "negative_slopes_of_5": 4, "spatial_votes_of_9": 0, "source_score_min": 0.3296957671957672, "source_score_max": 0.7271825396825397, "source_trend_min": 0.0017023808322846, "source_trend_max": 0.0046121589839458 } } }, "limitations": [ "The interval is for the mean of these 176 frozen cells, not the selected cell or an arbitrary region.", "Fixed covariance assumptions and retrospective support are unvalidated for ecological confidence; nominal 95% is not a coverage guarantee.", "Archived conditional null coverage is 92.6% for NDRE and 96.2% for NDVI; these are not real forest accuracy.", "Scores are three-family anomaly ranks; archived sensitivity votes are deliberate perturbations, not damage probabilities.", "No independent ecological labels are available. Unknown cell IDs have no substituted result.", "Pure continuous-time correlation lacks a measurement nugget and may inflate scales for close-date variation." ], "provenance": { "protocol_sha256": "7ccd7a2699c2371b73b12b7c7f68696b9423b41524d5c5e3ecfded0f169c8f62", "source_sha256": { "build_core_confidence.py": "884f03694e39be68742c8c85d4b953caba88c02a5d20ef9628c8227e11673e09", "parts_inference.py": "f0c91db70406707aa4abb9aff46a8f86bec42184c1b13129ab5d3c3e7ac2bcfa" }, "input_sha256": { "runtime/pilot_v4/tables/cell_scores.csv": "2fb18f884be7bbe80f1ad90ee1abe24c81ef2523061dd0723ea6ed7ddb8aa65e", "runtime/observation_audit_v1/cell_date_observations.csv": "1a509ecd85a1d8810d5ef35d55e1760cc0b63a627ecefea1ed843b8ee55958de", "runtime/observation_audit_v1/candidate_review_evidence.csv": "878d976301e4e26b058162cd704245149503fc4266db7940cb84dcbee93d8076", "experiments/parts_inference/results/cells.csv": "034f2c9d7e6035fa6f38d8d1389e446fcb2d6cc30ea19194cdd465041ea6bdd0", "experiments/parts_inference/results/scenarios.csv": "fa28e33b0a6fc95464886e56239c6075ec11d690b2be342ce06913187e215d13", "experiments/parts_inference/results/simulations.csv": "843af16844439f0644c3826f4cbae1f1991d4a0f9ab6fa0ea4d8c4fb5f87e4b4" } } }